Shock poll reversal casts doubts on Labor retaining traditional Nationals WA seat Warren-Blackwood

Shock new polling this week has cast further doubts on the Labor Party’s ability to repeat its 2021 “miracle” win in the WA Nationals stronghold of Warren-Blackwood. Riding the wave of then-Premier Mark McGowan’s popularity and the pandemic-era politics of State lockdowns, newcomer Labor MP Jane Kelsbie snatched the seat, which includes Augusta-Margaret River, from veteran 11-year parliamentarian Terry Redman. Mr Redman, a former Nationals leader, retired after that loss, which also saw Labor MPs claim three seats in the South West Upper House. Opposition Leader Shane Love has confirmed the Nationals are working to take Warren-Blackwood back, though he played down the latest poll. “The only poll result that matters will be held at the next State election in March 2025,” Mr Love said. “Our focus is on defeating the Cook Labor Government.” The Nationals leader said Warren-Blackwood deserved “a local champion, which it had when a Nationals WA MP represented them in Parliament”. “This seat has borne the brunt of a disinterested and neglectful Government, and a member who has no political sway in Parliament,” Mr Love said. Ms Kelsbie declined to buy into the debate about the polling and her chances of re-election. “The only opinion poll that matters is the one on March 8, 2025, when votes are cast at the next State election,” she said. “My focus is on continuing to deliver cost-of-living relief, strengthening our health system and boosting housing supply.” When Mr Cook took over the Premiership, Ms Kelsbie told the Times the State was “in a far better position” thanks to Mark McGowan’s leadership. “I have a great working relationship with our new Premier Roger Cook, and deputy Premier Rita Saffioti, and I look forward to continuing to deliver for Warren-Blackwood under their leadership into the future,” she said in May. Warren-Blackwood and the neighbouring Lower House seat of Vasse, held by Liberal Party leader Libby Mettam, could also undergo changes as part of the WA Electoral Commission review of boundaries now out for public comment. Ms Mettam told the Times the polls reflecting her rapid rise in popularity among WA voters could be a “distraction”. “We can’t afford to get distracted by the poll, but it is clear that the Cook Labor Government is not listening to voters and thinks it is above transparency and accountability,” she said. The MLA pointed to the Government’s “botched” Aboriginal Cultural Heritage Act and the neglect of regional communities as factors feeding into the 2025 election. “We also have a broken hospital system, cost-of-living pressures, and a housing crisis, all while the State is supposedly experiencing a record boom,” Ms Mettam said. “We have a long way to go until the 2025 election and we are under no illusion about the challenge we face, but we will continue to work hard and listen to Western Australians about the issues that affect them most.” Mr Love opposed the WAEC boundary changes as feeding into Labor’s electoral reforms, which he believed reduced the voice of regional voters in Parliament.