LATIKA M BOURKE: Kevin Rudd warns there’s a one in three chance Xi Jinping will make a move on Taiwan

There is a one in three chance Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a military grab for Taiwan, Kevin Rudd has warned.

Speaking to the Australian Institute for International Affairs in Canberra on Wednesday night, the former prime minister said China’s assessment of US President Donald Trump was a factor in his changed assessment.

President Xi has ordered his military to be ready to take Taiwan from next year.

Five years ago, speaking to the same institution, Mr Rudd - a China scholar and former Ambassador to the United States- said the status quo would remain. Overnight, he said things had radically changed.

“Since I last spoke to you, the military balance has changed; since I last spoke to you, China’s calculus of the United States has changed, and since I last spoke to you, new dynamics have emerged in Taiwanese domestic politics,” he said, referring to the three-time electoral success of the ruling Taiwanese pro-independence political party DPP.

“All factors considered, over the next three years, through until the end of 2028, and I think that’s the only rational predictive period, following the current US Administration, unilateral Chinese military action across the Taiwan Straits to take Taiwan is not a probability, it is, however, an increased possibility,” he said.

“And when I say an increased possibility, I don’t mean from five per cent to ten per cent, I mean an increased possibility which I argue is around about one in three.

“And I don’t use that lightly.”

China’s military spending accounts for around 44 per cent of the entire Asian region according to calculations by the IISS.

Mr Rudd said there was a simple solution.

“What’s worked since 1949 is deterrence, deterrence and deterrence,” he said.

He said this was not Cold War talk but simply aimed at forcing the Chinese to constantly calculate that the risks of military action against Taiwan were far greater than the reward.

“And therefore, sustaining that, both through the capabilities and the perceived and declared political will of the United States to act in defence of Taiwan, is the critical factor,” he said.

“In the full sweep of history, deterrence properly constructed and properly perceived is the best guarantee for sustaining the peace even if you are looking at tripwire mechanisms or tripwire events, of the type which caused 60 million people to lose their lives in 1914.”

Speaking at the National Press Club on Thursday, Mr Rudd said the “possibility of Chinese miscalculation about the degree of American resolve” worried him the most.

“Our response should be to double down with the United States and friends, partners and allies on the deterrence equation,” he told the NPC.

However, he refused to be drawn on whether Australia should join any potential military action with the US if Taiwan was invaded.

“It’s not responsible for anyone who served as prime minister, foreign minister, or ambassador to the United States to engage in hypotheticals,” he said.

“I was prime minister when we decided to withdraw our forces from Iraq. Did the United States welcome that? Not one bit.

“Was President Bush a happy camper with me? Not one bit.

“Did it imperil the alliance? Not one bit.”

Mr Rudd’s assessment is one of the strongest among global China-watchers. Last month, Australia’s last ambassador to China, Graham Fletcher, said Mr Xi was in no mood to move imminently and that the volatile personality of Mr Trump was also a deterrent.

While the Chinese military has been conducting aggressive military drills around Taiwan, in what many military analysts consider to be a dress rehearsal for a blockade or invasion, many China analysts believe that Mr Xi is content to let the internal politics of Taiwan take precedence over a direct military assault.

Justin Bassi, head of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra, said deterrence was also contingent on the war in Ukraine.

“Deterrence was lost in Europe and Russia invaded Ukraine. The success of Ukraine with the support of its friends has so far ensured that the invasion was a miscalculation. China is focused on whether we let Russia win or let Iran toll the Hormuz Strait and such outcomes would embolden Beijing in this region,” he said.

“China would still aim to take Taiwan by politically coercive means. So the strategy continues to require the US and its allies like Australia and Japan to ensure China believes the only way it can take over Taiwan is by military force and that such action would not be successful.”

Also adding to uncertainty is a string of purges Mr Xi has carried out in his military. It is unclear if they signal that the Chinese President is removing restraining voices around him or that they are punishment for the Chinese military not being ready to carry out any military operation.

John Hemmings from the hawkish think-tank Henry Jackson Society based in London, said there had been a weakening of US deterrence but that did not necessarily mean a sooner-rather-than-later conflict.

“I’m not sure that we have crossed a Rubicon on this issue - not that Kevin Rudd has said so - but the People’s Liberation Army purges that slammed China’s military leadership this year balance the weakening of deterrence under Trump, the depletion of US munitions, and the possibility of opposition KMT victories in upcoming local Taiwanese elections,” he said.

Late last month, the People’s Republic of China National People’s Congress passed a change to its National Defence Mobilisation Law which would allow it to summon civilian assets during when its unity, territorial integrity, security or developmental interests are under direct threat.

The change makes it easier for the PRC to justify seizing boats, ships, drones and other items made and used by civilians or businesses when the country is not in an outright war.

The Institute for the Study of War said change could allow the PRC to fill in the gaps in its capabilities to conduct a landing on Taiwanese shores from the sea by harnessing civilian boats.

It also said China’s massive drone market, accounting for around 70 per cent of global production, could be a target.

“The revisions to the mobilisation law emphasised expanding control over emerging technologies, such as unmanned systems. The PRC could use these new regulations to leverage the PRC’s massive civilian drone sector for military use, potentially allowing the PRC to meet the likely high wartime demand,” the ISW said.